Carbon dioxide removals by tropical moist forests offset most land-use emissions across 18 Afrotropical countries

African tropical moist forests are critical regulators of global carbon cycling, yet their contributions to national carbon budgets remain poorly constrained, impairing effective policy design. Here, we unravel carbon removals and emissions for 18 African tropical countries using multiple approaches over a data-rich period (2015–2019). Across countries, carbon removals (−286 ± 68.4 TgC yr−1) nearly offset land-use change emissions (343.4 ± 100.3 TgC yr−1), with consistent net fluxes between bottom-up and top-down approaches (57.4 ± 121.4 TgC yr−1 versus 99.1 ± 164.5 TgC yr−1). Results vary between countries, with highest removals in intact forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (−81.7 ± 64.2 TgC yr−1), lowest land-use change emissions in Gabon (2.6 ± 7.1 TgC yr−1), and highest fossil fuel emissions in Nigeria (31.2 ± 1.6 TgC yr−1). African tropical countries show high carbon removal rates and land-use change emissions but low fossil fuel emissions, contrasting with industrialized countries. (Inter)nationally endorsed conservation policies can reverse national carbon budgets from net sources to sinks. Carbon removals by intact African tropical moist forests nearly offset land-use emissions, underscoring the importance of environmental policies to protect this critical carbon sink, based on synthesized field data, remote-sensing products, and carbon-flux modelling.

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Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2026-06-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03710-w
Primary Topic
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Carbon dioxide removals by tropical moist forests offset most land-use emissions across 18 Afrotropical countries

Jean‐François Bastin, Marijn Bauters, Alfred Ngomanda, Paul I. Palmer et al.
Communications Earth & Environment
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
article

Carbon dioxide removals by tropical moist forests offset most land-use emissions across 18 Afrotropical countries

Jean‐François Bastin, Marijn Bauters, Alfred Ngomanda, Paul I. Palmer, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Anaïs Gorel, Pierre Regnier, Yu Feng, Simon L. Lewis, Auke Marijn van der Woude, Fei Jiang, Philippe Ciais, Bhély Angoboy Ilondea, Jean‐Remy Makana, Félicien Meunier, T. Luke Smallman, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Benjamin Toirambe, Wannes Hubau, Adeline Fayolle, William W. M. Verbiest, Liang Feng
article en

Abstract

African tropical moist forests are critical regulators of global carbon cycling, yet their contributions to national carbon budgets remain poorly constrained, impairing effective policy design. Here, we unravel carbon removals and emissions for 18 African tropical countries using multiple approaches over a data-rich period (2015–2019). Across countries, carbon removals (−286 ± 68.4 TgC yr−1) nearly offset land-use change emissions (343.4 ± 100.3 TgC yr−1), with consistent net fluxes between bottom-up and top-down approaches (57.4 ± 121.4 TgC yr−1 versus 99.1 ± 164.5 TgC yr−1). Results vary between countries, with highest removals in intact forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (−81.7 ± 64.2 TgC yr−1), lowest land-use change emissions in Gabon (2.6 ± 7.1 TgC yr−1), and highest fossil fuel emissions in Nigeria (31.2 ± 1.6 TgC yr−1). African tropical countries show high carbon removal rates and land-use change emissions but low fossil fuel emissions, contrasting with industrialized countries. (Inter)nationally endorsed conservation policies can reverse national carbon budgets from net sources to sinks. Carbon removals by intact African tropical moist forests nearly offset land-use emissions, underscoring the importance of environmental policies to protect this critical carbon sink, based on synthesized field data, remote-sensing products, and carbon-flux modelling.

Communications Earth & Environment
Royal Museum for Central Africa (BE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Ministry of Public Health (CD), University of Leeds (GB), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (FR), Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (FR), Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech (BE), Ghent University (BE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (FR), Forests and Societies (FR), National Centre for Earth Observation (GB), National Institute of Biomedical Research (CD), Eastern Institute of Technology, Ningbo, University College London (GB), Université de Kisangani (CD), Nanjing University (CN), Wageningen University & Research (NL), University of Edinburgh (GB)
European Space Agency, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, Belgian Federal Science Policy Office, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Universiteit Gent, Vlaamse regering
Life in Land
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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