Political and content drivers of social media impact in Spanish general elections: a twelve-year analysis from leading candidates on Twitter

Purpose This study examines how the political attributes of top prime minister candidates and the content features of their high-visibility tweets jointly shape message impact across six Spanish general elections, thereby clarifying the drivers of social media influence during electoral campaigns. Design/methodology/approach We analysed 22,573 tweets published by leading candidates between 2011 and 2023 in the 54 days preceding polling day, selecting the 50 most retweeted messages for each candidate and election (n = 1,250). OLS regressions modelled the logarithm of retweets and likes against governing or opposition status, ideological left-right axis, radical right affiliation, categorisation as traditional or new political force, negativity of the message, emotional tone, multimedia contents and inclusion of verifiable data, controlling for electoral cycle. Findings Impact rises significantly for newcomers, radical right actors and emotionally charged tweets, but falls for opposition leaders and video-based messages. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, negative rhetoric depresses likes while links or images do not foster impact. Tweets embedding objective performance data show a modest, albeit inconsistent, uplift in retweets. Overall, political variables explain more variance than content features, underscoring the continuing relevance of the party context in the digital arena. Originality/value Drawing on 12 years of election campaign data, this study integrates the political and content determinants of tweet impact in a multiparty European setting over the long term. By testing the explanatory power of factual government data, it expands theory on transparency and accountability in contemporary electoral communication. Peer review The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-05-2025-0385