Disentangling structural and competitive drivers of date export growth: a constant market share decomposition

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to disentangle the structural (demand-driven) and competitive drivers of Iran's date export growth from 2004 to 2023, and to assess the relative contributions of global market expansion versus improvements in bilateral competitiveness, thereby providing evidence-based insights for enhancing the long-term resilience and sustainability of a strategically important horticultural export sector. Design/methodology/approach The study applies a refined constant market share (CMS) decomposition framework to bilateral trade data for HS code 080410 (dates) sourced from the International Trade Centre (Trade Map), covering the period 2004–2023. The analysis decomposes export value changes into scale effect (global and regional demand), competitive effect (market share changes) and interaction effect, with sub-period breakdowns (2005–2010, 2010–2015, 2015–2020, 2020–2023) and detailed country-level examination of eleven major destination markets accounting for over 80% of exports. Production data are drawn from FAOSTAT for contextual validation. Findings Iran's date export growth has been predominantly driven by the scale effect, reflecting strong alignment with expanding global demand rather than sustained competitiveness gains. Competitiveness effects were episodic and volatile, with India emerging as the most stable and significant market, while Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey exhibited pronounced cyclical swings between gains and losses. Negative interaction and residual components in several periods highlight structural mismatches and fragility in market positioning. Research limitations/implications This study has several limitations that should be acknowledged. The analysis relies solely on reported export data, which may contain inconsistencies and does not account for mirror-import statistics from key destinations such as India, Pakistan, and especially the UAE, where re-export dynamics can distort observed patterns. In addition, the CMS decomposition is descriptive in nature, based on fixed sub-periods, and does not provide statistical confidence intervals. These factors mean that the results should be interpreted as indicative rather than definitive. Originality/value To achieve more resilient export performance, policymakers and industry stakeholders should prioritize market diversification beyond a few dominant destinations, invest in value-chain upgrading (quality, packaging and standards compliance) and strengthen long-term competitiveness to reduce vulnerability to external demand fluctuations and geopolitical risks.