Circular economy modelling for climate change mitigation: A review of empirical evidence and modelling approaches

Circular economy (CE) measures can play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in material- and energy-intensive sectors. Yet, their representation in GHG mitigation pathways is still not well captured in climate change mitigation models. To support modelling efforts towards better CE representation, two reviews were conducted: (1) the empirical evidence on the GHG mitigation potential of CE strategies across material supply and demand sectors and R-strategies, and (2) the current modelling approaches used to assess these strategies. Findings show that, while most studies focus on recycling, increasing attention is given to upstream strategies such as material substitution, design for reuse, and service-based business models. Important gaps remain, particularly around Refuse, Rethink, behavioural factors, rebound effects, as well as synergies and trade-offs with climate policy. Industrial ecology methods provide a detailed material flows representation but lack feedback mechanisms and economic dynamics. In contrast, GHG mitigation models offer broader system coverage but often simplify materials and CE dynamics. Better alignment between methods is needed, including shared definitions, improved data, and more collaboration across modelling communities. Strengthening the modelling of CE strategies can support policy-relevant assessments of CE’s contribution to achieving global climate goals.