Determinants of Internal Migration in Türkiye: Evidence from a Spatial Panel SAR Model

Internal migration constitutes one of the most important mechanisms shaping regional demographic structures and economic dynamics. Understanding the factors that drive population mobility across regions is therefore crucial for both economic analysis and regional policy design. This study examines the determinants of interprovincial migration in Türkiye using annual provincial data covering the period 2008–2020. The analysis employs a spatial panel data framework and estimates a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to capture both direct regional effects and spatial spillovers among provinces. The empirical results indicate that regional economic growth and human capital significantly influence migration patterns. Provinces with higher levels of economic activity and a greater concentration of university graduates tend to attract more migrants, highlighting the importance of economic opportunities and skilled labor environments in shaping mobility decisions. Public investment also exhibits a positive but relatively modest impact on migration flows. In contrast, technological development does not appear to exert a statistically significant influence on migration dynamics. Furthermore, the positive and significant spatial autoregressive parameter reveals the presence of spatial interdependence in migration flows across provinces. Overall, the findings emphasize that internal migration in Türkiye is closely linked to regional economic disparities and spatial interactions among provinces.