An Uncertainty-Aware Computational Framework for Dimensional Error Prediction in Ceramic Additive Manufacturing Under Variable Material and Process Conditions

Ceramic additive manufacturing offers strong potential for fabricating geometrically complex and application-specific components, yet achieving reliable dimensional fidelity remains challenging because dimensional deviation is governed by highly coupled material, process, thermal, and environmental factors. To address this problem, this study proposes an uncertainty-aware computational framework for dimensional error prediction in ceramic 3D printing under variable material and process conditions. The contribution is positioned as a system-level integration of established learning, uncertainty estimation, calibration, and reliability-interpretation components within a ceramic additive manufacturing dimensional-error prediction workflow, rather than as a fundamental methodological breakthrough. The validation is conducted using the publicly available Ceramic 3D Printing Process Control Dataset, a 1000-sample tabular dataset, and the resulting findings are therefore interpreted as dataset-specific computational evidence rather than direct proof of industrial deployment readiness. The methodology begins with a structured data-driven preprocessing pipeline that transforms the Ceramic 3D Printing Process Control Dataset into a multi-condition feature space through data cleaning, one-hot material encoding, min–max normalization, and engineered descriptors capturing extrusion–speed balance, thermal gradients, cooling intensity, deposition density, and material-conditioned interactions. A multi-branch deep computational architecture is then developed to encode material, process, thermal-environmental, and engineered-feature streams separately, followed by adaptive cross-condition fusion to learn nonlinear dependencies across ceramic printing regimes. To improve reliability beyond deterministic regression, the framework jointly models aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty and incorporates calibration refinement to align predictive confidence with observed error behavior, thereby enabling preliminary reliability-oriented interpretation of stable and high-risk operating conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that the full model achieves the best overall within-dataset performance, with a test MAE of 0.0118, RMSE of 0.0172, R2=0.999, MAPE of 1.74%, calibration error of 0.003, PICP of 0.996, reliability score of 0.992, and a stable prediction rate of 98.7%. Although these values indicate strong predictive behavior under the current structured dataset, the exceptionally high R2 should be interpreted cautiously because external experimental validation, larger measured datasets, and cross-machine ceramic printing trials are still required. These findings show that the proposed framework provides an effective system-level computational strategy for dataset-specific reliability-aware dimensional quality prediction in ceramic additive manufacturing and offers a preliminary data-driven foundation for uncertainty-aware intelligent process optimization.