Economic Uncertainty and Postponed Parenthood: A Study of Event Histories

Cyclical increase in economic uncertainty and structural economic uncertainty seems to decrease fertility. This study analyzing the event history of an individual uses a sequence of events to address the question: Why do some individuals postpone to have children while others do not? The economic shock of sudden increased unemployment and changed fertility trends are studied in a large scale prospective longitudinal study (n=300,000) of individuals born 1980–85 followed through linked administrative records analyzed in discrete-time hazard regression. The experience of economic uncertainty is approximated from records of unemployment records. Economic uncertainty and social exclusion increase the individual risk of induced medical abortion, family dissolution, and postponing parenthood. Postponement of fertility is closely related to the expansion of education. The economic shock of sudden increased unemployment is found to decrease fertility rates. Labor market conditions characterized by temporary employment and social exclusion are decisive when decision about starting a family.