Blue carbon as development – Opportunity or risk for coastal communities?

This paper critically examines whether blue carbon initiatives can function as equitable and effective development strategies for coastal communities, or whether they risk reproducing existing inequalities under the guise of sustainability. Situating blue carbon within the evolution of sustainable development, green economy, and blue economy discourses, the study interrogates the role of carbon offsetting as a climate mitigation tool, highlighting persistent concerns around additionality, permanence, governance, and social justice. Drawing on a qualitative case study of the community-led Mikoko Pamoja mangrove restoration project in coastal Kenya, the paper explores how blue carbon is implemented and experienced in practice. Findings suggest that while the project demonstrates tangible local benefits—including income generation, community infrastructure investment, and enhanced environmental stewardship—it also reveals significant governance and structural challenges. These include complexities around tenure, co-management, technical capacity, carbon quantification, and market access. The analysis shows that carbon offsetting operates as a socio-technical system shaped by power relations, institutional frameworks, and market logics, which can both enable and constrain community agency. The paper argues that although blue carbon holds potential as a transitional mechanism linking climate finance with local development, its outcomes are highly contingent on project design, funding structures, and governance arrangements. Without careful attention to equity, transparency, and local control, blue carbon risks reinforcing forms of “carbon colonialism.” Ultimately, the study contributes to broader debates on climate governance by demonstrating that the success of blue carbon as a development pathway depends not only on ecological effectiveness but also on its social and political implications.