Transit Infrastructure Policy and Displacement Risk in Latina/o Communities: An Etiological Qualitative Analysis

(1) Introduction: Transit-oriented development is often framed as a strategy to expand opportunity and advance equitable transportation. However, evidence suggests it can also contribute to rising housing costs and displacement in historically marginalized communities. This study examines how a light rail expansion reshaped displacement risk in a Latina/o community in the U.S. Southwest, identifying early mechanisms through residents’ interpretations of the expansion during construction. (2) Materials and Methods: Using a qualitative, community-engaged design, the study draws on ten in-depth pláticas with Latina/o residents conducted during construction of a major rail expansion. Data were analyzed abductively and guided by Critical Race Ecological Systems Theory (CrEST) to identify multilevel mechanisms linking infrastructure policy to lived social conditions. (3) Results: Findings identify three mechanisms through which transit investment generated displacement risk prior to relocation. First, historical and intergenerational memory shaping anticipatory displacement. Second, place-based belonging intensifying psychosocial stress and loss. Third, policy-mediated mobility constraining residents’ ability to remain or benefit from reinvestment. (4) Discussion: Transit infrastructure operates as a structural policy intervention that reorganizes risk, belonging, and stability when histories of racialized disinvestment are not incorporated into policy design. These findings position infrastructure planning as a critical site for social work policy analysis and prevention-oriented intervention.