The Effects of Macroprudential Policy Actions on Non-Bank Credit Growth: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between macroprudential policy actions and quarterly borrower-side NBFI credit growth in Turkey from 2005Q1 to 2021Q4. We use BIS credit statistics to construct NBFI credit and IMF iMaPP action-count indices to measure both the net stance and its tightening/loosening components. We estimate static and dynamic distributed-lag models, controlling domestic macro-financial conditions and global risk. We observe a significant negative relationship between loosening policy actions and NBFI credit growth in the same quarter and after four quarters. In the dynamic model, the contemporaneous net stance estimate is positive, while the within-year cumulative effect is small and shifts in a more negative direction after 2013Q4. Overall, the relationship between macroprudential actions and NBFI credit growth appears to vary over time and can be interpreted as conditional rather than as a fully identified causal effect.