Do weather-related extreme events influence climate-related opinions? The case of the 2019–2020 Australian Black Summer bushfires

Abstract We report three studies examining the impact of the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires, known as the Black Summer, on Australians’ climate-related opinions. Study 1 was conducted before the peak of the bushfires, whereas studies 2 and 3 were conducted afterwards. In all studies, participants completed a Q-sort task ranking opinion statements about climate change by degree of endorsement. Study 3 also incorporated measures of bushfire perceptions and climate policy support. Q-sort responses consistently revealed evidence for three opinion segments: climate change acceptors, fence-sitters and sceptics. Over time, the proportion of acceptors decreased, the proportion of fence-sitters increased, while sceptics remained stable. Perceptions of the bushfires varied across segments. Although all segments perceived the fires as severe, acceptors tended to attribute them to climate change, whereas fence-sitters and sceptics attributed them to mass arson. However, even many acceptors endorsed the mass-arson claim. On climate policy, acceptors favoured stronger action, fence-sitters were evenly divided, and sceptics mostly opposed change. Our results suggest the Black Summer bushfires did not elicit greater acceptance of anthropogenic climate change or heightened concern. Instead, misinformation, particularly conservative media narratives attributing the fires to mass arson, may have influenced beliefs about the fires’ causes, especially among undecided and sceptical individuals.