Heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on income amongst employed migrants and non-migrants in Vietnam

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labour markets globally, intensifying inequalities and reshaping employment structures. In Vietnam, migrants who relocated in search of a higher income were disproportionately affected, and non-migrant workers faced distinct challenges. Using data from the Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey 2018–2022, this study applies propensity score matching to investigate the effect of migration on labour income. Although migrant workers earned more than non-migrant workers, they experienced greater income volatility during the pandemic and recovery periods. Stratified analyses revealed the diverse effects of migration on income. Although the pandemic created short-term job opportunities that were more accessible to migrants owing to their specific characteristics, the surge in demand was temporary. In the post-pandemic period, labour market conditions returned to normal, and a gradual transition towards automation and digitalization shifted labour demand in favour of more skilled and digitally literate workers. Consequently, migration benefits have become more pronounced for high-school graduates than for less-educated individuals. These findings highlight the importance of policies that promote lifelong learning and employment protection alongside investments in education, vocational training, and digital access. Such measures are essential for building adaptive, inclusive, and resilient labour markets.