Japan at the frontier of ageing capitalism: Evidence from global demographic–economic clusters

This paper investigates how population aging, labor market conditions, and economic performance combine to shape the global demographic–economic landscape, with particular attention to Japan. Although Japan is frequently portrayed as a highly distinctive case because of the speed and depth of its demographic transition, it remains unclear whether it is best understood as a case lying outside the broader comparative structure or as a frontier case within a wider structural configuration shared by other advanced economies. Using panel data for 179 countries over 2000–2024, the study constructs standardized country profiles based on indicators of aging, labor force participation, unemployment, and GDP per capita growth. These profiles are analyzed using k-means clustering and multidimensional scaling (MDS), alongside multiple validation procedures. The results reveal a three-cluster global structure and show that Japan remains associated with the cluster of aging advanced economies across the baseline and sub-period specifications, while also occupying a position close to the outer boundary of that broader configuration. Japan thus appears not as a sui generis anomaly, but as a frontier case of a wider configuration characterized by advanced aging, mature labor markets, and weaker growth performance. The paper contributes by providing a systematic global classification of demographic–economic patterns and by repositioning Japan as an analytically strategic case in the comparative political economy of aging.