Hybrid democracy or failing state? Conceptualizing Pakistan's governance trajectory

This study examines Pakistan's governance trajectory by combining insights from hybrid regime theory and state fragility literature. Pakistan maintains the outward appearance of a democratic system with elections and constitutional institutions. Yet, these features operate within a political order shaped by elite manipulation, corruption, and civil–military relations. At the same time, the state struggles with service delivery failures, recurring economic crises, and persistent security challenges, all of which limit its capacity and legitimacy. The 2024 general elections provide a critical example of this dual condition, as widespread public support for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf was undermined through rigging, candidate disqualifications, and judicial decisions that aligned with military preferences. The study uses a qualitative case study design based on secondary data from academic research, governance indices, international policy reports, and reputable media sources. Thematic analysis identifies five interconnected findings. These include electoral manipulation, corruption and the absence of the rule of law, civil–military relations, service delivery failures, and regional conflicts. Together, these factors create a hybrid–fragile political order that leans more toward fragility than hybridity. The study concludes by presenting a conceptual framework that explains how these dynamics reinforce one another and by offering recommendations for strengthening the rule of law, accountability, and state capacity.