Navigating uncertainty: exploring the interplay between global pandemic uncertainty and the US tourism sector

Purpose This study investigates how the United States (US) tourism sector responds to global pandemic shocks by employing the World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI). It departs from outbreak-specific analyses to evaluate the overall impact of global pandemic uncertainty on tourism performance and the US dollar index. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly data from January 2005 to April 2023, the study applies advanced econometric techniques, transfer entropy, time-varying Granger causality, wavelet and partial wavelet coherence, to examine dynamic, multi-scale interactions among pandemic uncertainty, tourism performance and currency fluctuations. Findings Results reveal that global pandemic uncertainty significantly and dynamically influences the US tourism performance. Information flows from the WPUI to tourism indicators, helping to reduce sectoral uncertainty and suggesting that global health shocks hold strong predictive power for tourism outcomes across time and frequency domains. Social implications Findings highlight the importance of incorporating pandemic-related uncertainty into tourism forecasting, policy design and crisis preparedness. Strengthening sectoral resilience through diversified tourism strategies, risk monitoring and early-warning systems can help mitigate the adverse effects of future global health shocks. Originality/value This study uniquely applies the WPUI to assess the aggregate impact of global pandemic shocks on the US tourism sector, rather than focusing on individual outbreaks. By integrating transfer entropy, time-varying Granger causality and wavelet-based techniques, it captures nonlinear, dynamic and frequency-dependent interactions often overlooked in existing research. The study advances the understanding of how pandemic uncertainty transmits across tourism and financial channels, offering novel methodological and empirical insights that enhance forecasting accuracy and inform resilience-oriented tourism policy and crisis management strategies.