Techno-economic assessment of agrivoltaic systems for wheat cultivation across multiple climatic regions of Pakistan

Agrivoltaic (APV) systems offer a strategic solution for Pakistan, where land scarcity, rising energy demand, and food security challenges coexist. Implementing APV can simultaneously increase renewable energy production and maintain agricultural output, contributing to energy-food nexus optimization. This study evaluates the technical and economic performance of fixed vertical and horizontal axis tracking (HAT) APV systems for wheat cultivation across climatically and agriculturally representative regions of Pakistan. Spatial screening was carried out using national land use/land cover and solar irradiance datasets in ArcGIS to identify croplands with high solar potential and wheat suitability. The analysis reveals that optimal APV deployment zones are predominantly located in Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, from which 10 representative sites were selected for detailed evaluation. PVSyst simulations, a radiation-based crop yield model, and discounted cash flow analysis were applied consistently across all sites under varying shading sensitivity conditions. HAT systems deliver higher annual energy yields (427–490 MWh/ha) than fixed vertical systems (375–431 MWh/ha), while wheat yield reductions remain moderate. Land equivalent ratio (LER) exceeds unity for both configurations, confirming that APV dual-use productivity surpasses equivalent separate systems; fixed vertical systems achieve marginally higher LER values reflecting superior land-use efficiency. Economically, HAT systems outperform across all sites with shorter payback periods (5.35–7.67 years), higher return on investment (30.08–56.77%), and lower levelized cost of energy ($0.075–0.089/kWh) compared to fixed systems (6.96–10.92 years, 13.69–35.79%, $0.088–0.102/kWh). These findings reveal a fundamental design trade-off establishing APVs as a technically feasible and economically viable strategy for Pakistan's energy-food nexus.