Modelling of Tropical Forest Canopy Change and Land Surface Temperature in Kolasib District of Mizoram, Northeast India

Tropical forests are crucial ecological resources but are face severe threats from human activities. Assessing forest cover is essential for monitoring and for the development of effective sustainable forest management approaches. This study analyses the changes in forest canopy density and land surface temperature (LST) in Kolasib district of Mizoram, India, over a period of three decades (1995–2025), utilizing Landsat satellite imagery via Google Earth Engine (GEE). The Forest Canopy Density (FCD) model was computed by integrating the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Advanced Vegetation Index (AVI), Barren Index (BI), and Shadow Index (SI). A Mann-Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation were also applied to the long-term data. The results revealed a 1.83% increase in non-forest areas and a 0.21% decrease in dense forest, primarily driven by infrastructure and shifting cultivation. Conversely, moderate forest increased by 2.41% due to vegetation recovery and land‑use policies. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis shows that LST is increasing by 0.042°C annually, accumulating in a 1.26°C increase over the three decades. Although NDVI has improved over recent years, the thermal footprint remains elevated, proving that forest conversion permanently alters the regional microclimate. These findings emphasize the necessity of sustainable land-use planning for continued forest management and conservation.