Analysing the linear and nonlinear impact of rice production and trade openness on methane emissions in India

India, being one of the largest producers of rice, contributes significantly to global methane emissions. Simultaneously, trade openness influences production intensity, which accelerates methane emissions. Since former studies have focused more on carbon and greenhouse gas emissions, instead of methane, this poses unique challenges, thereby demanding greater consideration. Hence, the study fulfils this gap by providing detailed insights into methane emissions, rice production, and trade openness dynamics. It analyses the linear and non-linear lagged trends using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag models in India over the period 2001–2021. The findings from the ARDL model confirmed a 0.041 percentage point increase in methane emissions due to rice production in the long run. Trade openness decreased methane emissions by 0.107 percentage points in the long run, while increasing them by 0.144 percentage points in the short run. The findings from the NARDL model indicated that only a positive shock in rice production increased methane emissions by 0.192 percentage points in the long run. Whereas, in the short run, a positive shock in rice production and trade openness increased methane emissions by 0.283 percentage points and 0.044 percentage points, respectively. A negative shock in rice production decreased emissions by 0.111 percentage points. The Granger causality test revealed only unidirectional causalities running from trade openness, fossil fuels, and fertilizers towards methane emissions. These findings indicate that government officials and policymakers should emphasize the implementation and strengthening of climate-conscious agricultural practices (i.e., especially for rice cultivation) and trade policies that directly align with environmental and sustainable development goals.