Mapping Sub-Field Crop Water Use Dynamics Using OpenET Data and Zero-Shot Time-Series Foundation Model

Precision agriculture increasingly relies on high-resolution, long-term remote sensing to delineate sub-field management zones. However, traditional spatial zonation assumes temporal stationarity, utilizing seasonal aggregates that obscure transient, intra-annual stress signals. This study develops a data-driven framework to characterize both persistent and non-stationary crop water use dynamics by integrating monthly, 30-m evapotranspiration (ET) data from OpenET (2000–2025) with zero-shot temporal anomaly detection. A pre-trained time-series foundation model (Chronos-T5-Small) generated counterfactual expectations for sub-field ET, quantifying deviations using a mean absolute error-based anomaly score. Unsupervised clustering of these anomaly scores with longitudinal ET metrics partitioned the landscape into dynamic biophysical regimes. Cross-registered against legacy persistence mapping based on seasonal totals, the foundation model showed strong directional agreement (86.1%, Cohen’s Kappa = 0.716) in identifying chronically constrained zones across 869 shared active pixels. Crucially, the framework identified 966 historically persistent pixels undergoing stability decay, of which 95.3% were statistically verified via paired t-tests to have collapsed into the field’s baseline variance pool. Furthermore, counterfactual anomaly detection isolated zones of recent acute divergence, differentiating enduring edaphic constraints from sudden system disruptions. This approach demonstrates how foundation models can transition from purely predictive engines to diagnostic instruments, advancing operational precision agriculture.