Spatiotemporal epidemiology of livestock anthrax in Kazakhstan and analysis of potential contributing factors from 2015 to 2024

Anthrax remains a persistent transboundary zoonotic disease in the Republic of Kazakhstan despite long-term vaccination programs and established veterinary surveillance. This study aimed to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of anthrax outbreaks in livestock and humans and to describe their relation to environmental, climatic, and immunoprophylactic factors. Retrospective data on anthrax outbreaks in cattle, small ruminants, and humans recorded between 2015 and 2024 were analyzed using descriptive temporal trend analysis and thematic spatial mapping at the regional level. Climatic parameters, including temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, were evaluated in relation to outbreak dynamics. Serological monitoring of cattle was conducted using the indirect hemagglutination assay to assess serological response, and non-parametric statistical methods were applied to compare regions and time periods. A total of 33 anthrax outbreaks were registered, with 93.4% occurring in cattle. Outbreaks showed pronounced seasonality, peaking in summer and early autumn, and were concentrated in historically endemic regions. Despite reported vaccination coverage exceeding 97% in several regions, outbreaks persisted, suggesting the influence of multiple factors, including environmental persistence of Bacillus anthracis spores and variability in vaccination practices, animal coverage, or environmental persistence of Bacillus anthracis spores. Serological analysis revealed regional heterogeneity in antibody levels. Human cases were temporally associated with livestock outbreaks and were primarily linked to unauthorized slaughter and handling of infected animals. These findings underscore the need for integrated risk-based surveillance combining climatic monitoring, spatial analysis, and targeted vaccination to support anthrax prevention strategies in endemic areas.