A geostatistical diagnosis of eldercare facilities within the urban agglomeration: exploring spatial (mis)match and service pressure in regional supply–demand dynamics

Population aging demands precise spatial allocation of eldercare resources, yet systematic misalignments between provision logics and the fixed geography of need remain underexposed. Urban agglomerations concentrate both aging populations and care infrastructure, but their internal spatial (mis)matches across administrative boundaries remain largely unexplored. This study addresses this gap by diagnosing spatial (mis)matches and service pressure across 48 county-level units in China’s Wuhan “1 + 8” City Circle. The Supply–Demand Matching Index and Facility Service Pressure Index were constructed and integrated with Global Moran’s I, Anselin Local Moran’s I, and Getis-Ord Gi* for geostatistical assessment. The findings reveal a systemic decoupling that directly challenges SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), specifically universal healthcare access, as resources are spatially misaligned with aging populations. This mismatch exacerbates inequalities (SDG 10), creating territorial burdens in peripheral counties overlooked by conventional density-based planning metrics. By diagnosing these structural vulnerabilities within China’s strategy for Equalization of Basic Public Services, the study reframes spatial justice as a territorial imperative. It argues for integrative planning that re-embeds provision logics within the fixed geography of need to achieve spatial coordination and equilibrium – a critical step toward fostering sustainable and resilient cities (SDG 11).