A Parametric Life Cycle–Energy Modeling Framework for Evaluating Plastic Waste-to-Energy Systems Under Variable Grid Carbon Intensity

Waste-to-energy (WtE) systems are frequently proposed as complementary waste-management strategies; however, their climate performance depends on the interaction between thermodynamic efficiency, material circularity, and electricity-system characteristics. Existing life-cycle assessments generally provide static comparisons between landfill and WtE but rarely identify the operating conditions under which WtE remains environmentally competitive. To address this gap, a parametric life cycle–energy framework was developed by integrating attributional LCA with an analytical energy model capable of evaluating critical efficiency thresholds under varying recovery rates and electricity-grid conditions. Four representative thermoplastics (PET, HDPE, PP, and LDPE) were evaluated using ReCiPe 2016 Midpoint (H) in SimaPro under Mexican electricity conditions (EFgrid=0.444 kg CO2eq/kWh). Results indicate that total life-cycle climate impacts are dominated by upstream polymer production, whereas end-of-life management contributes only marginally to overall GWP. Critical-efficiency analysis revealed strong sensitivity to both recovery rate and electricity-grid carbon intensity. For PET, the minimum efficiency required for WtE to outperform landfill increased from 13.1% to 73.5% across the evaluated scenarios, whereas HDPE remained competitive at efficiencies below 1.3%. Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 realizations) further demonstrated that avoided emissions decline systematically with increasing recovery rates, with LDPE exhibiting the highest mean avoided emissions (1735 kg CO2eq) and PET the lowest (811 kg CO2eq). These results demonstrate that WtE climate performance is governed primarily by residual waste availability and electricity-system evolution rather than thermodynamic efficiency alone. Consequently, WtE should be interpreted as a transitional residual-waste management strategy whose long-term climate relevance decreases as material circularity and electricity-grid decarbonization advance.