Assessment of Shoreline Dynamics in a Hurricane-Impacted Arid Region Using CoastSat and GIS Techniques

Coastal zones are dynamic interfaces where land, ocean, and atmosphere interact, making them sensitive indicators of environmental change. However, quantifying shoreline movement across long distances and over multi-year timescales remains challenging using traditional ground-based methods alone. We conducted an analysis of environmental factors and shoreline dynamics along a 58 km stretch of the arid Cabo Pulmo shoreline in Mexico from 2020 to 2026 using the CoastSat tool. The landscape is characterized by a diverse array of geographical features, including sandy beaches, granite cliffs, estuarine systems, and various anthropogenic structures. Results indicated a sea-level rise of 2 mm/year over the last 27 years, which is consistent with the reported range for the Pacific (1.8 to 3.8 mm/year). Notably, we observed an increasing trend of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Mexican Pacific, with an average of 1 additional hurricane per decade (1950–2023). A total of 457 Sentinel-2 satellite images were used for automated analysis using the CoastSat platform, all of which were acquired under tidal conditions not exceeding 1 m. Our findings indicate that the granite cliffs show no detectable horizontal changes in the satellite images; however, their minimal vertical erosion contributes sediment to adjacent beaches. The most significant shoreline erosion was observed north of a marina breakwater, measuring −19.7 m, attributed to the disruption of littoral transport toward the southeast. In contrast, sandy beaches located in front of streams and estuaries—characterized by a lack of infrastructure (houses and breakwaters) and gentle slopes of 2° to 4°—demonstrated positive accretion of up to 5.9 m. According to the autoregressive distributed lag model, wave energy and hurricane-driven wind gusts are the primary agents of shoreline retreat, displacing sediment seaward to the continental shelf. Sea level rise exacerbates this retreat, while rainfall plays a minor but contributing role by transporting sediment during hurricanes in this arid region. This study highlights the effectiveness of CoastSat as a neural network-based tool for analyzing shoreline changes; however, we faced certain limitations, such as the absence of in situ beach profiles due to restricted access.