Simulating the Potential of an In-Space Fragmentation of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter

Abstract The rapid expansion of activities in the cislunar region introduces new challenges for ensuring the long-term safety and sustainability of lunar operations. With hundreds of missions planned in the coming decades, the risk of orbital congestion in Low Lunar Orbit (LLO) is becoming increasingly relevant. Recent conjunctions involving active spacecraft, such as NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and KARI’s Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), underline the need for effective Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space Traffic Management (STM) strategies in this domain. This work presents a preliminary effort to characterize the potential debris environment in LLO through high-fidelity fragmentation simulations using the Collision Simulation Tool Solver (CSTS), a semi-empirical code developed at the University of Padova. Specifically, this study investigates two critical breakup scenarios: an explosion of the LRO and a collision between the LRO and the KPLO. The tool enables the modeling of complex breakup scenarios and the derivation of statistically representative debris populations for subsequent dynamical analyses. The resulting synthetic datasets provide an initial foundation for understanding the spatial distribution and evolution of debris clouds in the lunar environment. Such analyses are critical for supporting future mission design, risk assessment, and operational decision-making, ultimately contributing to the establishment of a sustainable framework for cislunar space operations.