Technical and economic strategies for smart electrification of urban districts: A probabilistic modelling framework

This study investigates the techno-economic feasibility of district-level electrification, focusing on the residential energy community of Maynooth, Ireland. A high-resolution building archetype model is developed to capture heating demand heterogeneity across 5700 dwellings, and three retrofit scenarios are evaluated: (i) heat pumps, (ii) heat pumps combined with rooftop photovoltaic panels and battery energy storage systems operating under a self-consumption strategy, and (iii) the same configuration managed by an advanced, price-responsive control strategy. A Monte Carlo framework quantifies uncertainties in capital and operating costs, fuel and electricity prices, and discount rates, enabling a probabilistic investment analysis. Results show that Scenario 3 consistently delivers the most favourable economic performance, achieving positive net present values with just 7% of public support, compared to 18% and 35% in Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. The novelty of this study lies in its comprehensive and uncertainty-aware assessment, which directly connects the energy community decarbonisation with investment risk and financing needs. Building on this, the policy implications highlight the importance of subsidy schemes calibrated to technology configuration and risk exposure, ensuring economic sustainability while enabling widespread residential decarbonisation.