Populism and Foreign Policy: The Future of Indonesia–Taiwan Relations under President Prabowo

This paper explores Indonesia–Taiwan relations under the populist government of President Prabowo within the broader rise of populism in Indonesia. Indonesia and Taiwan have maintained pragmatic ties in economic cooperation, labor migration, and education throughout the past decade. At the same time, the future trajectory of this relationship has been challenged by the growing influence of populist nationalism under the leadership of Prabowo Subianto. This study examines key developments, major challenges, and possible shifts in Indonesia’s approach toward Taiwan and proposes that a populism characterized by a strong nationalist rhetoric may lead Indonesia to reinforce its adherence to the one-China policy. While this may not directly undermine ties, it could invite greater pressure from China for Indonesia to remain disengaged from cross-Strait affairs. Additionally, Indonesia’s foreign policy is expected to become more transactional and prioritize economic interests. While Taiwan remains an important economic and investment partner, Indonesia’s increasing alignment with Beijing’s strategic and economic interests may limit deeper engagement beyond trade and labor relations. The findings suggest that Indonesia–Taiwan relations could indeed become more constrained under a populist regime that is defined primarily by economic rather than political considerations.