The Illusion of Competence in Public Management: A Scoping Review of the Dunning-Kruger Effect and Institutional Metacognition

The Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where individuals with low ability overestimate their skills, emerges as a fundamental challenge for public administration, a field founded on the principle of meritocratic expertise. This comprehensive scoping review synthesizes and analyzes the scattered academic research on the manifestations and consequences of this phenomenon in administrative, educational, and political contexts. The findings reveal that “meta-ignorance” is not merely an individual psychological error but is systemically reinforced by organizational structures that lack objective feedback mechanisms. This dynamic leads to failed policies, undermines organizational learning, and erodes public trust. In response to this identified knowledge gap, the article proposes a new conceptual framework, Institutional Metacognition, which shifts the focus from individual incompetence to the institutional capacity for collective self-assessment and correction. This framework offers a diagnostic and normative tool for designing public organizations that promote epistemic humility and effectiveness.