Beyond static DPSIR: A CDPSIR-path dependency synthesis explaining 60 Years of groundwater policy failure in Rafsanjan, Iran

Study region The Rafsanjan Plain aquifer in arid south‑eastern Iran (rainfall: 137 mm/year) has been a “forbidden plain” since 1974. Despite five decades of policies, groundwater levels declined 23.5 m (1983–2019), with extraction (∼683 MCM/year) far exceeding recharge (∼432 MCM/year). Pistachio cultivation (∼80,000–100,000 ha) accounts for ∼503 MCM/year of extraction. Study focus Why have all policies since 1966 failed to halt decline? Moving beyond static assessments, we conduct a root‑cause analysis using a novel synthesis: Grounded Theory within an extended CDPSIR (Context‑Driving Forces‑Pressures‑State‑Impacts‑Responses) framework, combined with path dependency theory and causal loop diagrams. We trace 160 years (1861–present) across five periods to identify critical junctures, self‑reinforcing mechanisms, and lock‑in effects. New hydrological insights for the region The crisis is not a technical failure but path‑dependent lock‑in from export‑oriented pistachio monoculture. Five critical junctures (1861 cotton boom, 1921 pistachio transition, 1962 Land Reform, 1979 Revolution, 1982 Fair Water Distribution Law) activated self‑reinforcing mechanisms—increasing returns, learning, coordination, adaptive expectations, institutional complementarity, and technological lock‑in—that raised deviation costs. By the 1980s, only wells running dry provided any corrective force. Past policies (drip irrigation, forbidden plain, legalization amnesties) failed because they were overwhelmed by lock‑in structures. We derive transferable conditions and propose agrivoltaics on non‑productive orchards to break the lock‑in.