Prospective Association Between Weight Variability and Subsequent Long‐Term Weight Loss in the <scp>CALERIE</scp> Study

ABSTRACT Objective Higher short‐term weight variability (WV) predicts greater subsequent weight gain in weight‐stable adults and toddlers and lower long‐term weight loss among adults with overweight or obesity who previously lost weight. We extend prior work by examining the impact of naturally occurring WV on subsequent weight loss (weight at month 3 minus later weights) in individuals without obesity enrolled in the Comprehensive Assessment of the Long‐term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE) study. Methods Participants ( N = 143) followed a 25% caloric restriction diet over 2 years. WV was calculated as the root‐mean‐squared‐error of individuals' weights over the first 12 weeks. Multilevel models examined WV's prediction of subsequent weight loss at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months relative to month 3, adjusting for baseline BMI, 12‐week weight change, and demographic variables. Sensitivity analyses further included time‐varying adherence and eating behaviors (disinhibition, restraint, craving). Results Higher WV was associated with less subsequent weight loss at 6 months ( B = −0.38, 95% CI [−0.63, −0.13], β = −0.16, p = 0.003). The interaction between time and WV was not significant; analyses suggested the association extends through year 1. Conclusions Short‐term WV predicted lower subsequent weight loss in adults without obesity. Once its biobehavioral mechanisms are understood, WV might provide insight into humans' innate capacity for long‐term weight stability and inform future mechanistic research and clinical interventions. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT00427193