Power transition and pivot states in the geopolitics of the Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal has emerged as a pivotal arena within the evolving geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, where maritime connectivity, infrastructure development, and strategic competition increasingly intersect. This article examines the growing rivalry between India and China in the region through the analytical lenses of neorealism and Power Transition Theory. It argues that the shifting distribution of capabilities between the two powers has generated a condition of regional strategic uncertainty that encourages smaller littoral states to pursue hedging strategies. Through a comparative case study of Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, the paper conceptualizes these countries as pivot states whose geographic position and control over key maritime infrastructure allow them to influence the operational reach of competing powers. The analysis demonstrates that rather than passively responding to great-power rivalry, these states leverage infrastructure partnerships, connectivity projects, and diplomatic diversification to maintain strategic autonomy. In doing so, pivot states actively mediate the evolving balance of power in the Bay of Bengal and shape the emerging strategic architecture of the Indo-Pacific.