Determining Geothermal Potential Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Geographic Information System Environment: A Case Study of Kırşehir Province

Today, geothermal energy is gaining increasing importance as a sustainable, cheap, clean, and environmentally friendly energy source. Kırşehir, which was chosen as the study area, is a city rich in geothermal resources. In the present study, a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model, specifically the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was used within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to identify areas with geothermal potential in Kırşehir province. In this context, eight criteria were evaluated, including slope, lineament density, distance to fault, drainage density, land surface temperature, distance to hot springs, hydrothermal alteration, and lithology. Using the AHP model, a comparative evaluation of the criteria was performed, and the weight percentages for each criterion were calculated. The weights assigned to each criterion were transferred to raster maps in a GIS environment, and a map of areas with geothermal potential was generated by superimposing the weighted thematic layers. In light of the findings, it has been determined that the southern, southeastern, and eastern parts of Kırşehir province have high (21.73%) and very high (13.68%) geothermal potential. Validation using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (Area Under Curve, AUC = 0.837 demonstrated strong model accuracy. Furthermore, the geothermal potential zones on the generated model map were observed to overlap with the locations of existing geothermal resources within the study area. The techniques of GIS and AHP used in this study are considered an effective tool that will enable the discovery of new geothermal fields across Türkiye, increase the potential for renewable energy in thermal tourism, residential heating, greenhouse farming, and balneological applications, and contribute to energy production.