Is the Circular Economy Narrowing Regional Disparities? A Club Convergence Analysis of Separate Waste Collection in Poland

ABSTRACT This study investigates the convergence dynamics of municipal waste streams across Polish counties in the context of the Circular Economy transition. Using a panel dataset covering the period 2017–2024, the analysis focuses on four fractions of municipal waste: paper and cardboard, glass, bulky waste, and bio‐waste. The empirical strategy combines a β ‐convergence test across regions; Phillips and Sul log‐ t test is employed to examine whether regions follow a common convergence path and discrete choice models. The results reveal conditional β ‐convergence for paper and cardboard, glass, and bulky waste, indicating that counties with initially higher waste sorting levels experience slower growth rates of waste segregation over time. In contrast, bio‐waste exhibits a divergent pattern, suggesting increasing disparities across regions. The club convergence analysis identifies several spatially clustered convergence regimes. The econometric results further show that socio‐economic factors such as income levels, tourism intensity, urbanization, population ageing, and unemployment significantly influence the probability of belonging to specific convergence clubs, although their effects vary across waste fractions. In the context of Circular Economy, the results suggest that waste management in Poland contributes to reducing regional disparities in some waste fractions, but the adjustment process remains uneven. The findings highlight the need for regionally tailored waste management policies.