Assessing the Infrastructure Condition and Historical Failure Patterns of Academic Buildings in a Nigerian Polytechnic: A Multi-Criteria Vulnerability Framework

Academic buildings in Nigerian federal polytechnics suffer accelerating deterioration arising from reactive maintenance cultures, institutional underfunding, and the absence of structured condition monitoring systems. This paper the first of a five-paper series on smart predictive maintenance at Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria establishes the empirical baseline from which the subsequent papers develop, deploy, and evaluate an integrated Internet of Things and machine learning predictive maintenance system. Employing a modified Building Condition Assessment (BCA) instrument adapted from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS, 2019) condition rating framework, together with a novel Multi-Criteria Building Vulnerability Index (MCBVI) developed through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) consultation with fifteen domain experts (Saaty, 1980), this investigation systematically quantifies the condition, failure frequency, expenditure patterns, and vulnerability profile of five representative academic buildings encompassing 9,800 m² of gross floor area. A five-year retrospective analysis of 1,847 maintenance work orders was conducted alongside structured physical audits and 217 stakeholder interviews. Findings reveal that aggregate Building Condition Index scores range from 35 to 51 out of 100, uniformly below the 60-point acceptable threshold, while cumulative reactive maintenance expenditure rose by 68.3% between 2020/21 and 2024/25 against a reactive-to-preventive expenditure ratio consistently exceeding 5:1 (Adenuga, 2023; Olubodun & Jenkinson, 2002). The MCBVI the first composite vulnerability scoring instrument empirically calibrated to Nigerian polytechnic campus conditions ranks the Technical Workshop Complex as the most critical asset with a score of 82.6. Findings are contextualised within Sustainable Development Goal 9 (resilient infrastructure and innovation) and SDG 11 (safe, inclusive, and sustainable settlements). Three original contributions to knowledge are advanced: the MCBVI instrument; a five-year failure and expenditure dataset unprecedented in the Nigerian polytechnic literature; and a tropically adapted BCA protocol applicable across the 25-institution federal polytechnic network.