Downhill from here? Why shrinking regions are not necessarily ‘left-behind’

This paper explores the socio-spatial polarisation between thriving agglomerations and de-populating or stagnating, largely rural, areas in Germany, answering the question to what extent shrinking regions can also be seen as ‘left behind’. We find that demographic shrinkage is a challenge mostly for peripheral and rural districts. Our analysis shows no significant link between socio-economic development and population growth, highlighting the importance of more exhaustive definitions for capturing regional developments. We argue that complex shrinkage, capturing processes of peripheralisation, can provide much needed depth. Nonetheless, neither simple nor complex shrinkage necessarily lead to ‘left-behindness’ and statistically defined ‘left-behind’ places may not be perceived as such by their inhabitants. Our research shows that this is driven by two separate processes that exceed statistical models. Firstly, the population in the rural shrinking case study area used in this paper is aware of the rurality of their region, values its positive qualities and sees many of the perceived disadvantages as mitigated through online services. Secondly, inhabitants feel included in the development of more prosperous places through everyday mobility. Both these aspects demonstrate that living in a shrinking area is not intrinsically linked to feeling ‘left-behind’. We conclude with a call for more tailored policies including a critique of the place-based approach. We argue that policies should not seek to reverse shrinkage in order to avoid feelings of ‘left-behindness’, but look to improve the interconnections of regions and recognise everyday mobility and local qualities.