UNIVERSITY COMMUNITY-DRIVEN URBAN CHANGE AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM KEFFI, NIGERIA

The rapid expansion of universities in developing countries often drives urban transformation, with significant implications for local housing markets. This study investigates the impact of Keffi, Nasarawa State University, on housing affordability in Keffi, Nasarawa State, Nigeria. The central aim of this study was to assess the extent to which university-driven urban growth influences the housing costs of residents and to identify the key determinants of affordability stress. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted, sampling 390 households across three distance-based strata from the university. Data were collected using structured questionnaires capturing sociodemographic characteristics, housing expenditure, and affordability perceptions. The analytical methods included descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and logistic regression. Findings reveal that 84.6% of households spend more than 30% of their monthly income on rent, indicating severe affordability stress (χ² = 143.16, df = 4, p < 0.05). Financial cost was identified as the dominant factor of housing affordability (52.56%; χ² = 177.94, df = 3, p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis confirmed that low household income (odds ratio (OR) = 3.47), high rent prices (OR = 3.04), population growth (OR = 2.15), high land costs (OR = 1.92), and limited access to housing loans (OR = 1.54) are significant predictors of affordability stress. These results align with the theories of growth pole, bid rent, modern rent, and studentification, illustrating the concentration of economic pressures around the university. The study concludes that university-driven urban expansion has a measurable impact on housing affordability, disproportionately affecting low and middle-income households. Key recommendations include expanding affordable housing supply, improving access to housing finance, implementing rent regulation mechanisms, integrating university growth into urban planning, and promoting mixed-income development. These interventions are essential for mitigating housing stress and ensuring equitable access to adequate housing in Keffi