A framework for effective long-term conservation in a changing climate

The effectiveness of many existing conservation strategies is at risk of being diminished, as they were designed and/or implemented under the assumption of a stationary rather than a changing climate. Continued support for these strategies could divert resources from alternative strategies that are more sustainable over the long term. We introduce the “longevity of existing conservation strategies” (LECS) decision-support framework for proactively assessing and adaptively managing existing strategies to enhance future conservation capacity. The framework, which is based on the concept of climate change refugia, was applied to two prototype conservation strategies, namely the reintroduction of captive-bred giant pandas into historical geographic ranges and the establishment of the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP). Long-term effectiveness was evaluated based on the potential for in situ and ex situ refugia for a phenologically-diverse bamboo food supply. Application of the LECS framework, using climate scenarios for 2061–2080 under a high emissions trajectory, suggests that 1) panda reintroduction likely would only serve as a near-term strategy except within the current range and portions of the historical range along the Tibetan Plateau, and 2) proactive management of the GPNP is needed that anticipates potential reductions in a diverse bamboo food supply in the northern GPNP and takes advantage of a projected sustained food supply in the central and southern GPNP. These two applications of the LECS framework highlight that ongoing assessment of the long-term effectiveness of existing strategies needs to become a routine component of conservation practice to reduce climate change maladaptation and misplaced conservation.