Low-carbon transition pathways in thai sugarcane agriculture: a scenario-based evaluation of cost-effective mitigation options

The agricultural sector plays a critical role in national climate strategies, particularly in emerging economies where high emission crops are prevalent. This study evaluates cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies for sugarcane cultivation in Thailand using a scenario-based framework. Eleven mitigation technologies including biofertilizer, solar irrigation, and machine harvesting were assessed through a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach under four policy relevant future scenarios. The results reveal significant variation in abatement potential and cost-effectiveness depending on institutional support, financial incentives, and technology accessibility. The Clear Sky scenario achieves the highest mitigation potential, 5.33 MtCO₂e per year, with marginal abatement costs ranging from negative 258.47 to 65.27 USD per tCO₂e. These findings highlight the need for targeted investment and enabling policies to accelerate technology adoption and realize sustainable transitions in agricultural GHG management systems. The methodology provides a transferable decision-support framework for guiding climate-smart agriculture under diverse governance and socio-economic contexts.