How Exposure to Retrospective and Prospective Messages in Television Ads Shapes Voter Participation in Judicial Elections

Abstract Do retrospective and prospective messages about judicial candidates influence participation in individual state high court races? To answer this question, I examine the effect of television ads for judicial candidates on ballot rolloff in state high court elections from 2000 to 2018. I find that increased exposure to ads with higher proportion of retrospective messages has diminishing returns, as more exposure to these ads increases the average rolloff per judicial election and per judicial race. Despite concerns about candidates announcing what they will do once they are elected, I find no relationship between prospective messages and voter participation given increased exposure to ads containing such messages. These results suggest that exposure to a candidate’s record may both mobilize and fatigue voters, and that concerns about prospective rhetoric may be exaggerated.