In- and Out-of-Possession Running and Technical-Tactical Performance in Soccer

This study derived composite indices of attacking and defensive team performance, quantified how in-possession (IP) and out-of-possession (OP) running metrics related to these indices, and assessed contextual effects. 1,346 team-match observations from male teams competing in the Danish Superliga, Denmark’s top-tier professional football league, across 3.5 seasons were analyzed using Second Spectrum tracking and Wyscout event data. Principal component analysis generated Attacking and Defensive Performance Indices. Linear mixed-effects models tested associations between phase-specific running metrics and the indices, with team as a random intercept and match result and location as covariates. XGBoost models with SHAP assessed feature importance. Attacking performance was most strongly associated with IP total distance. After adjustment for IP movement volume, IP high-speed running and IP sprint distance showed conditional associations. OP total distance was negatively associated with both indices. Defensive performance was positively associated with OP high-speed running and IP high-intensity run count but negatively associated with IP sprint distance and OP total distance. An OP sprint distance × location interaction indicated that higher OP sprint distance related to lower defensive performance mainly in away matches. Match result showed small independent effects. XGBoost showed strong predictive accuracy for attacking (held-out R2 = 0.765) and moderate predictive accuracy for defensive performance (held-out R2 = 0.399), with SHAP confirming IP and OP total distance as dominant predictors. Team performance is closely linked to phase-specific running behavior. Movement volume during possession was the clearest correlate of attacking output, whereas defensive performance reflected lower OP workload and greater high-speed defensive activity.