PFUSRC-042: Critique of Survivorship Bias: Unexplained Phenomena Interpreted via Transcendental Holism

Survivorship bias is a classic analytical model in statistics and cognitive psychology. However, it has been widely overgeneralized and misapplied beyond its inherent scope in contemporary popular science and social science research. This paper adopts a deconstruction and reconstruction framework to redefine the applicable paradigm of survivorship bias in a systematic manner. The first part rigorously derives three axiomatic prerequisites for the validity of survivorship bias. It demonstrates that classic cases, including aircraft bullet hole analysis, the smoking-longevity paradox, entrepreneurial success analysis and historical narrative interpretation, fail to meet the core requirement of purely random selection. The essence of these phenomena lies in objective causal laws, individual heterogeneity and systematic targeted selection, rather than statistical cognitive biases. The second part explores the fundamental issue of individual continuous survival under purely random selection scenarios. It criticizes the academic inertia of mainstream reductionist paradigms, which simply attribute unexplained phenomena to randomness and probability. Statistics can only describe population distributions and cannot provide ontological interpretations for individual cases. Based on Transcendental Holism and the PFUSRC topological theoretical system, this paper innovatively proposes the concept of Mingge (Topological Coupling Strength). It refers to the coupling strength between an individual and the rigid topological skeleton of the universe, which is determined by four core dimensions: spatiotemporal topological anchoring at birth, prime number node hierarchy, synchronization degree of Ψ-Ξ dual-field coupling, and resonance matching degree of the β₁ global topological operator. This concept offers a logically consistent ontological explanation for differential individual survival under random selection. This research is rooted in the core tenet of the PFUSRC Topological System: the rigid topological skeleton of the universe is the ultimate ontology, and all local phenomena and individual existences are projections of this ontology. The ontology-projection relationship resolves the explanatory dilemma of traditional statistical paradigms. This study curbs the overgeneralization of survivorship bias, bridges the gap between statistical cognition theory and transcendental ontological topology, and forms a complete theoretical loop from paradigm critique to theoretical construction.