Asymmetric Response of Summer Extreme Heat Events to CO2 Removal Scenarios in Eastern Sichuan–Chongqing, China

In recent decades, summer extreme high-temperature (EHT) events in the Sichuan–Chongqing (SC) region of southwestern China have become increasingly frequent under global warming. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered a key strategy for achieving the temperature targets of the Paris Agreement; however, the response of regional EHT events to CDR remains poorly understood. Based on CN05.1 observations and idealized CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down experiments from the CMIP6 Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP), this study investigates the historical characteristics of summer EHT events over eastern SC and their responses to CDR. The results show that historical EHT events have become more frequent, longer-lasting, and more intense, indicating an overall intensification of regional high-temperature risk. Under idealized CO2 pathways, regional mean temperature and EHT frequency exhibit pronounced asymmetric and hysteretic responses, with positive anomalies persisting even after CO2 returns to its initial level. This asymmetric response is closely associated with the enhanced slow oceanic response during the ramp-down period. Stronger El Niño-like and Indian Ocean Dipole-like SST warming intensifies the South Asian High and western Pacific subtropical high, favoring elevated summer temperatures and increased EHT events over eastern SC. Soil moisture also heats the atmosphere by altering the surface latent heat flux in the southwestern part of the study region during ramp-down period. These findings not only improve the understanding of regional extreme event responses in the SC region under carbon neutrality, but also confirm the positive effect of carbon neutrality targets on mitigating regional extreme climate change, thereby highlighting the urgent need to control CO2 emissions.