A literature‐based framework for anticipating golden jackal <i>Canis aureus</i> colonisation: insights from Europe and a Swiss case study

The expansion of the golden jackal Canis aureus in Europe, caused mainly by habitat fragmentation, climate change and the decline of large carnivores until half a century ago, poses emerging challenges for newly colonised regions. With the arrival of a new species, potential effects on local animal communities, hunting, livestock husbandry or the transfer of diseases need to be addressed. Therefore, anticipating probable areas for colonisation is crucial to allow early monitoring and targeted management strategies and thus mitigate potential conflicts from the beginning of the recolonisation. In this study, we therefore conducted a literature review on the golden jackal's habitat use and diet on a European scale to identify ecological factors that influence its local distribution. We then used this information to model habitat suitability for the golden jackal in Switzerland, where increasing detections indicate imminent colonisation. We modelled four scenarios with different weights for the ecological factors: land cover, mosaicity, proximity to water, snow cover duration and wolf presence. All models show that Switzerland provides suitable habitat over a large surface area, particularly the Swiss Plateau and the northern Jura Mountains. These regions are characterized by a high prevalence of mosaic environments with plenty of access to water‐related habitats, are generally low in elevation with shorter winters, less snow and are so far largely unoccupied by grey wolves Canis lupus . The models were validated using confirmed locations of dispersing golden jackals in Switzerland. The results show that golden jackals were found at locations with a significantly higher habitat suitability than at points generated randomly. Our modelling approach provides a transferable framework for guiding early monitoring efforts and focusing information campaigns and early mitigation measures for potential conflicts with stakeholder groups in regions undergoing golden jackal colonisation, and could be easily applied to other species.