Empirical models for light aircraft weight estimation in conceptual design and parametric studies

Abstract The maximum take-off weight (MTOW) affects many aspects of aircraft design, such as performance, stability and control. It is the first and most important design variable that affects numerous aircraft design decisions. Understanding how parametric changes to the major design variables would likely affect the MTOW in the early stages of the preliminary design phase is crucial. This research introduces a ground-breaking approach to precision weight estimation in light aircraft design. Employing a statistical approach, specifically multilinear regression alone and coupled with p-value analysis, the study focuses on predicting the MTOW using datasets from aircraft still ‘in production’ and/or ‘in service’. The aircraft are categorised by landing gear arrangement and number of engines. Eight crucial design parameters that influence aircraft weight are used to determine the empirical models. The developed models successfully predict the MTOW with an error of less than 5% and outperform existing weight estimation techniques, empowering designers to conduct parametric studies that include essential design parameters at the early stages of aircraft design. The proposed methodology represents a paradigm shift in the field, offering a reliable and practical means of achieving precision in light aircraft weight predictions.