Risk Management of Underground Rail Transit: A Disaster Chain Network Analysis

In recent years, China’s urban underground rail transit has developed rapidly, and the development of underground space has become increasingly complex, exposing the system to multiple operational risks such as structural instability, excessive deformation, equipment failures and emergencies. Existing studies often evaluate individual hazards or isolated stakeholder risks, while insufficient attention has been paid to how sudden events interact and propagate as disaster chains. To address this gap, this study develops a disaster-chain network framework for operational risk management in underground rail transit. Twenty sudden disaster risk events are first identified through literature review, expert consultation, system investigation, and HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) analysis. A database of 595 historical events is then used to construct co-occurrence and adjacency matrices. And the Jaccard index is used only to quantify association strength, while temporal order, HAZOP-based causal screening, and expert verification are introduced to distinguish plausible triggering relationships from simple correlations. Network indicators, including degree, betweenness, modified clustering coefficient, path length, connectivity, and edge vulnerability, are applied to identify critical nodes and propagation paths. The results indicate that functional failure of civil structures, fire, and crowd stampede are the dominant risk nodes. The proposed framework provides a transparent and replicable basis for prioritizing monitoring, emergency response, and link-cutting mitigation measures. The findings are intended as system-specific decision support rather than universal risk rankings and should be updated when new local operational data become available.