The 2022 Men’s Volleyball World Championships: a detailed analysis of skill efficacy across complexes considering rally, set and match success

This study analysed skill efficacy in relation to successful rally, set and match outcomes in elite men’s volleyball, with consideration given to the potential impact of complexes. Footage from 26 pool-stage matches, across 232 players, of the 2022 Fédération Internationale de Volleyball (FIVB) Men’s World Championships were coded. Mixed-effects logistic regression models assessed how one-unit increases in skill efficacy influenced the odds of success at each outcome level. All skills positively influenced rally, set and match outcomes, except for block efficacy, which demonstrated uncertainty at the match level. Considering odds ratios, spike efficacy exerted the greatest effect on rally outcome (5.73), whilst setting was most influential (1.43) and for match outcome (1.35) along with serve receive (1.34). The conversion of odds ratios to predicted probability and subsequent analysis provided novel insight into the magnitude of skill efficacy increments on success likelihood. Regarding complexes, only the slope of efficacy for defence varied significantly across complexes for both rally (p < 0.01) and match (p = 0.04) outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of aligning skill development priorities with the specific performance outcome level, supporting efficacy-based, context-sensitive performance analysis frameworks for elite volleyball coaching, with implications for talent identification and development.