A review of scenario analysis tools for urban green space planning and management

Scenario analysis can help urban green space planning respond to uncertain environmental, social, and policy futures. This systematic review analyzed 157 publications to clarify its applications in green space planning and management. We distinguished two research traditions—studies identifying urban green spaces from land use and land cover data for regional ecological planning (UGS1), and studies examining green infrastructure within built urban environments (UGS2). Using a three-stage framework of scenario analysis, we found clear differences in the geographic distribution, focal issues, scenario construction approaches, and evaluation pathways. UGS1 mainly addressed ecological security and climate-related issues, whereas UGS2 emphasized climate regulation, stormwater management, and urban environmental quality. Overall, systematic evaluation frameworks and stakeholder engagement remained limited. This review identifies five opportunities to make scenario-based green space planning more actionable and decision relevant.