Data-driven assessment of energy security dynamics in European Union countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the level and dynamics of energy security in EU countries between 2010 and 2023. Due to the importance of the phenomenon under study and the difficulties in clearly defining and interpreting the level of energy security, a comprehensive analysis of the problem was undertaken using various statistical and econometric methods, including causal-descriptive models, trend models, a synthetic measure based on the Weber median, random forest, and regression trees. The methods used and the obtained results allowed for the identification of indicators affecting energy security, a classification of the countries under study, and an assessment of the dynamics of the phenomenon under study. Scandinavian countries experienced high levels of energy security, while Southern European countries experienced low levels, primarily due to the volume of energy production, the diversification of energy sources, and the price of energy for both households and businesses. The obtained results confirm the complexity of the phenomenon under study and the need to incorporate such analyses into the development of EU energy strategies, as well as the need to raise public awareness in this area. According to the authors, the obtained results constitute an important contribution to the discussion on improving the EU's energy security.