Habitat Suitability Assessment of Milu (Elaphurus davidianus) in Coastal Wetlands of Jiangsu Province Based on Species Distribution Models

Under global climate change, ungulate distributions are generally shifting poleward. However, the dispersal pathways, dynamics of suitable habitat, and environmental drivers of the expanding Milu population in the intensively used coastal wetlands of Jiangsu Province remain poorly understood. To support conservation and management, this study used field occurrence data and environmental variables to predict potentially suitable habitat for Milu under current and future climate scenarios. The Biomod2 ensemble modeling framework was applied to assess spatial changes in habitat suitability, and Geographical Detector was used to identify key environmental drivers. Current potentially suitable habitat showed a belt-like pattern along the coast, with the high suitability area covering 0.035 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, potentially suitable habitat for Milu is projected to expand in the central and northern coastal areas of Jiangsu, with a substantial increase in the predicted total suitable habitat area. Dis_coastline, BIO14, BIO4, and Pop_density were identified as key factors influencing the distribution of potential suitable habitat for Milu, among which BIO4 and BIO14 were the principal climatic drivers affecting the northward shift in future suitable areas. These results suggest that Milu habitat suitability is jointly shaped by coastline proximity, temperature and water-availability conditions, and population density. Conservation should prioritize the protection of highly suitable habitats, improve patch connectivity, reduce human disturbance, and strengthen wetland protection and vegetation restoration.