Usage intensity and passenger satisfaction in mixed formal-informal public transport systems: Evidence from Dar es Salaam

Research on public transport satisfaction often assumes that repeated exposure to service strain, such as delays, crowding, and irregular headways, reduces satisfaction over time through cumulative perceptual wear (“service fatigue”). However, this assumption remains largely untested in mixed formal-informal systems, where regulated services such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) operate alongside informal paratransit, including Daladala minibuses. Using survey data from 5449 passengers collected in 2024 and 2025, this study examines how usage intensity shapes satisfaction in Dar es Salaam across an operational BRT corridor and corridors under development where Daladala services remained dominant. During the study period, the network functioned as a mixed regime: Corridor 1 operated as a formal BRT trunk service under capacity constraints, while Corridors 3 and 4 were served primarily by informal Daladala operations. Satisfaction was assessed across four dimensions, service quality, availability, reliability, and ticketing, and aggregated into a composite index. Results reveal a clear gradient: occasional users report the lowest satisfaction, weekly users the highest, and daily users' intermediate levels. ANOVA and generalised ordinal logistic models confirm these differences after controlling for corridor type and socio-demographic factors. The findings challenge a simple service fatigue narrative, indicating that satisfaction is more strongly shaped by familiarity, exposure timing, and operating conditions, with occasional users more vulnerable to service variability. Accounting for usage intensity is therefore critical for interpreting satisfaction and improving performance in evolving mixed public transport systems.