Building Drought Resilience in Somalia through Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies

Climate-induced droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity, disproportionately affecting fragile states such as Somalia through acute food insecurity, water scarcity, livelihood disruption, displacement, and heightened socioeconomic and governance stress. This study aimed to shift drought management from predominantly reactive humanitarian response toward evidence-based resilience planning by empirically examining how integrated climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies influence drought resilience, identifying root drivers of vulnerability, gaps and barriers to implementation, and community-backed policy priorities within Somalia’s socio-ecological and institutional context and relevant regional frameworks. Using a descriptive and explanatory quantitative design, structured online questionnaires were administered in drought-prone Somali regions to a target population of 3000; 353 were distributed and 321 valid responses were analyzed (90.9% response rate). Validated Likert-scale measures assessed resilience, perceived effectiveness of CCA/DRR, barriers, and policy support; reliability was acceptable to good (Cronbach’s alpha 0.79–0.88). Pearson correlations and multiple regression (SPSS 31) tested hypothesized relationships, with structural relationships interpreted through resilience theory, socio-ecological systems theory, DRR and CCA theory, and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. Respondents were predominantly pastoralists (48.6%) and farmers (27.7%), with 66% residing in drought-prone areas for >10 years. Overall drought resilience was low (mean 2.38/5), while perceived CCA/DRR effectiveness was moderate-to-low (2.89/5) amid high agreement on barriers (4.12/5) and very strong support for integrated policy action (4.35/5). CCA/DRR effectiveness correlated positively with resilience (r=0.56, p<0.01), barriers correlated negatively with resilience (r=−0.48, p<0.01), and policy support correlated positively with both resilience and perceived effectiveness. Regression explained 45% of variance in resilience (Adjusted R²=0.44; F(3,317)=86.23, p<0.001), with CCA/DRR effectiveness the strongest positive predictor (β=0.42, p<0.001), barriers a strong negative predictor (β=−0.38, p<0.001), and policy support a smaller but significant positive effect (β=0.19, p=0.002); all three hypotheses on positive effects of CCA, DRR, and their synergy were supported. The findings indicate that integrated CCA–DRR strategies can substantially enhance resilience in Somalia, but gains are constrained by systemic governance instability, underfunding, limited actionable climate information, weak coordination, and insufficient incorporation of local knowledge. Priorities include institutionalizing integrated CCA–DRR in development plans, establishing accountable multisectoral coordination, scaling water infrastructure and localized early warning, enabling livelihood diversification, and ensuring community-driven, adequately financed implementation to translate policy support into durable drought resilience.